Brussels: Europe and the Arabs

The airstrikes inside Iran have revealed a widening transatlantic rift, and Donald Trump's decision to launch airstrikes alongside Israel has highlighted the depth of the divide between the United States and Europe. One of the US president's allies described Europe's approach to Tehran as "pathetically lenient," according to a report published Sunday by Playbook, the European edition of Politico. The report added:

"That was then: Thirty-five years ago, European countries joined a US-led coalition in Operation Desert Storm to launch strikes against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.

Now, not only have European countries not participated in Operation Epic Wrath, which Iranian state media confirmed overnight had killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but many European leaders were also unaware of its impending arrival. Once the bombing began, most rushed to call for restraint and de-escalation.

Following the attack, Iran launched retaliatory strikes against US military bases in the Persian Gulf." European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote in a statement on Saturday: “We call on all parties to exercise maximum restraint, protect civilians, and fully respect international law.”

This sharp divide illustrates the widening rift between the European Union and the United States 13 months into Trump’s second term. While Europe is focused on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States is backing away and seeking a quick fix. Regarding Iran, the situation is reversed: Europe observes and comments from afar, showing little interest. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, an ally of President Trump, wrote in a scathing post on X on Saturday: “Everyone in Europe is, rightly, outraged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But when it comes to the long-suffering people of Iran, Europe’s stance has been shameful.”

He continued: “You have become pathetically weak and have lost your appetite for confronting evil, apparently, unless it is on your doorstep.” Chris LaCivita, the Republican strategist who led Trump’s 2024 comeback campaign, wrote: “European leadership is weak, vacillating, and afraid even of its own shadow.”

These criticisms come as EU countries struggle to present a united front. Despite this, divisions have emerged. Germany, France, and the UK have tacitly endorsed efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. However, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has taken a different stance, writing: “We reject unilateral military action by the United States and Israel.” Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin has emphasized “restraint” and “dialogue.” Read this article by Milena Valdi for more on these divisions. Against this backdrop, EU ambassadors are scheduled to meet today in Brussels at 2 p.m.

This meeting precedes an emergency Foreign Affairs Council meeting: the foreign ministers of the 27 member states will convene via videoconference at 5 p.m. for an extraordinary meeting of the Foreign Affairs Council. Then on Monday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will convene a meeting of the Security Council—a new format that brings together top officials focused on security, defense, and foreign policy.

Europe has improved at keeping pace with the accelerating rhythm of world affairs, holding rapid and frequent meetings to forge common positions (even on weekends). But when it comes to speaking with one voice on the Middle East—or having any real influence—it remains divided and far removed from the United States.

The news site adds that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whom Trump declared killed in the airstrikes, and the void his death has created at the top of the regime, was described by Trump as “one of the most evil figures in history.” Politico asked seven experts to assess the risks of a wider war, and many fear the White House may be entering more uncharted territory. The report added, "Regarding the current situation: The crisis reveals the limits of Vladimir Putin's partnership with Tehran, as Moscow has offered only muted support since the strikes. This moment highlights the pragmatic nature of the Russian-Iranian relationship." Inside the White House, Trump's frustration with the diplomatic impasse had been growing for days, until officials concluded that time had run out. This behind-the-scenes report shows how quickly the crisis could escalate into military action. Satellite images show extensive damage to the Iranian Supreme Leader's compound, providing the clearest visual evidence yet of the strike's impact. The risk of an oil price shock: The Iranian attack has begun to cast a shadow over global energy markets and could complicate Trump's broader strategy on oil and Venezuela. Traders are bracing for price volatility. Kaya Callas, the EU's foreign policy chief, warned that the situation was "critical" after the US-Israeli strikes, while Ursula von der Leyen and European Parliament President Roberta Tutsi urged... Metsola is urging restraint. National capitals are divided on the extent of their alignment with Washington.

Transatlantic tensions:
European leaders were quick to respond, revealing new tensions with Washington and divisions within the European Union. The crisis is rapidly becoming a true test of EU-US unity.

Officials in Warsaw reported that Poland had prior knowledge of the strikes, highlighting the greater involvement of some Eastern European governments in the planning.

With the exception of Israel, Washington has struggled to garner broad international support for the strikes, indicating early diplomatic isolation. This limited coalition contrasts sharply with previous US military campaigns.   

Iran Retaliates: Iran launched counterattacks against US bases in the Gulf, sharply increasing the risk of the crisis spreading throughout the region.

Division Among Democrats: In the US, Democrats are divided over how strongly they oppose the strikes, highlighting tensions between the party's peace wing and more interventionist voices. This division could complicate the party's rhetoric in the midterm elections.

War Powers Struggle:
Pressure is mounting in Congress to vote on limiting Trump's military authority against Iran. This effort raises the prospect of a potential constitutional showdown over war powers.

Coalition Unity Tested:

The Iranian escalation could dampen enthusiasm within Trump's own coalition (MAGA) before the midterm elections, revealing divisions between hawks and more isolationist supporters.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney quickly endorsed the US operation, offering one of the clearest allied support to date. New York City Mayor Zahran Madani strongly criticized the strikes, joining a growing chorus of local critics warning of further entanglement in the Middle East.

A Shift in the Balance of Power: The US-Israeli campaign could lead to unprecedented shifts in the balance of power in the Middle East, or to a new regional conflagration.

Anxious Neighbors:

Gulf allies are navigating a delicate phase as the crisis escalates, with regional governments bracing for repercussions and potential retaliatory actions. These tensions highlight the vulnerability of Iran’s neighbors to further escalation.