Brussels: Europe and the Arabs
It is not yet halfway through the first month of the new year, and good news came to Moroccans published today, Friday, and it said that the High Commission for Planning in Morocco expects a relative recovery in economic growth this year at a rate of 3.3 percent, after its decline to 1.3 percent last year, according to what it announced Thursday, provided that it is The agricultural sector is doing well.

The High Commission stated that the forecast assumes average crop production after the worst drought in decades, a decline in foreign demand for commodities, and oil prices at $90 a barrel.

She added that these numbers are still subject to change due to the uncertainty caused by the impact of geopolitical tensions, as well as the risks of the pandemic and the climate.

It said inflation, driven by imports, would be 1.9 percent in 2023, compared to 5 percent in 2022.

For his part, the delegate's general secretary, Ayyash Khallaf, said in a press conference in Rabat that this rate remains subject to "the recovery of agricultural activities," noting that "the specter of a return to drought still exists despite the rains in December."

The expectations of the delegate, an official body, were less optimistic than the government's estimates, which are betting on a growth rate of 4 percent this year.

The added value of the agricultural sector is still essential to the growth of the Moroccan economy, but its performance remains linked to climatic conditions, as the Kingdom suffered last year from a severe drought. This caused a slowdown in growth (1.3 percent), coupled with the repercussions of the war in Ukraine and a rise in the inflation rate to a record level of 5 percent.

In addition to the climate, Moroccan economic growth this year will also depend on external factors, especially the repercussions of the war in Ukraine, the development of interest rates and epidemiological risks, the delegate added.

Although external demand will decline this year to 3.2 percent (7.6 percent last year) due to the expected contraction in global trade, the delegate expects internal demand to rise by 3.2 percent, "to be the main engine of growth."

Domestic demand is expected to benefit from a decline in the inflation rate to 1.9 percent, and a "slight acceleration in the level of household consumption."

Last year, Morocco suffered from a rise in the prices of fuel and foodstuffs, which affected the purchasing power of people with limited incomes and the middle groups in particular, and also led to protests by trade union organizations and opposition parties in the recent period.
Source: agencies