Moscow: Agencies
Russian arms exports have fallen by 92% since 2021, according to Pavel Luzin, a defense policy expert and lecturer at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Boston, as the Kremlin directs all of its military production to meet the needs of the conflict in Ukraine.
A report by the Balkans news platform stated that defense industry analysts warn that the long-term health of this sector depends on a rapid end to the war in Ukraine, which increases pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to start ceasefire talks with Kiev.
Arms exports were Russia’s second-largest export after oil, but revenues from Russian arms sales will fall to less than $1 billion by the end of 2024, Luzin, a lecturer at Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, said at the State and the World: Russian Realities 2024 conference in Berlin. Revenues have fallen sharply from $14.6 billion in 2021 to $8 billion in 2022 and $3 billion in 2023. A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicated that Russia fell to third place in global arms exports in 2023, behind the United States and France. This follows a steady decline in Russian defense exports, which fell by half between 2014 and 2018. By 2023, Russia was supplying arms to just 12 countries, down from 31 in 2019, reflecting its declining influence in the global arms trade. According to the Cairo-based Youm7 website, Sergei Chemezov, CEO of state defense corporation Rostec, recently confirmed that Russian arms sales reached $15 billion in 2021 but fell to $7 billion in 2022 and $6 billion in 2023. Figures for 2024 have not yet been released, but industry forecasts point to a sharper decline. “We see that Russia as an arms exporter has generally failed,” Luzin said, attributing the decline to sanctions, logistics disruptions and declining customer confidence. The decline in exports is undermining Russia’s relations with partners in the global south who rely on cheap but sophisticated weapons for their security arrangements. One of the topics on the agenda of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with Putin in July was the delay in the delivery of the advanced S-400 air defense system that India has ordered to protect its northern borders with China and Pakistan.