Brussels: Europe and the Arabs
Israel and Hamas have reached a long-awaited agreement that would halt the catastrophic fighting in Gaza. The agreement is expected to take effect on Sunday - the day before Donald Trump's inauguration - with an initial six-week phase that includes the release of dozens of hostages held by Hamas during the October 7, 2023 attacks. Reuters reported that news of the ceasefire sparked scenes of joy and disbelief in Gaza. The Brussels magazine Playbook reported this morning that “the agreement was brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt (European governments were not directly involved in the talks).” The magazine said that Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Mustafa is in Brussels today to meet with Council President Costa, Mediterranean Commissioner Suica and European Parliament President Metsola. He is likely to convey his message that the Palestinian Authority must be the sole governing body in Gaza from now on, which the Israelis will not accept.

The EU has a reconstruction plan: “We are already moving forward with a multi-year support programme for the Palestinian Authority, to help pave the way for a two-state solution,” Mediterranean Commissioner Dubravka Suica told Playbook. “We will work on a dedicated reconstruction plan and recovery process for Gaza with international partners, including the Gulf states.”
But Europe remains starkly divided. The war has exacerbated pre-existing political divisions in the bloc, with some countries recognising a Palestinian state (Spain and Ireland) and others siding firmly with Israel (Germany, Hungary and Austria). These dynamics played out in the EU institutions, where despite her efforts to counter perceptions, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was widely seen as more attuned to Israel’s suffering and its then-high representative Josep Borrell was seen as more sympathetic to the Palestinians.
European leaders welcomed reports of a long-awaited ceasefire and expressed cautious optimism that it could lay the foundation for a lasting peace – provided all sides respected its terms.
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the ceasefire agreement as a “stone towards lasting stability”… European Parliament President Roberta Metsola said it “could be a turning point towards sustainable peace, an increase in aid, and a catalyst that turns despair into hope”… EU foreign policy chief Kaya Kallas was more enthusiastic, calling it a “major positive breakthrough”… while her predecessor Borrell said the peace deal was “long overdue” and that both sides “must fully respect it”.
Among the big institutional players in Brussels, only Antonio Costa (the only socialist among them) cited the EU’s official view on resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: “The EU remains committed to a comprehensive, just and lasting peace based on the two-state solution.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, another prominent European socialist, also insisted on this point. Bottom line: “A political solution must come,” said French President Emmanuel Macron, who has called the past 15 months of conflict an “unjustified ordeal.” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called the deal “good news,” and said that “the remains of the dead [hostages] should also be handed over to the families for a dignified burial.” And longer-term ideas: Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris, one of Europe’s harshest critics of Israel, said the international community should support “a renewed Palestinian Authority to bring stability and governance to Gaza.” (An idea likely to please only the Palestinian Authority.)

The latest agreement has three stages, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported. Over the first six weeks... Hamas will gradually release 33 of the roughly 100 remaining Israeli hostages... Israel will release some of the Palestinians it has held (the number will depend on how many hostages Hamas frees, but Reuters estimates it could range from 990 to 1,650)... Israeli forces will gradually withdraw from the Strip... Gazans will be able to return to (what remains of) their homes in the north... and a massive influx of aid will be brought into the enclave. There is uncertainty on the horizon: the second stage of the agreement has yet to be reached. Negotiations are scheduled to begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire, but this stage is envisioned to include a permanent end to the fighting, a full withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the release of the remaining hostages. (If peace holds… there was a negotiated cessation of hostilities in November 2023 but fighting has since resumed.) The third phase involves returning the dead hostages and beginning a major reconstruction effort in Gaza, under the auspices of Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.

Israel’s intransigent response to the 2023 assault, in which Hamas killed about 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages, has devastated the territory. More than 46,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health officials, and many have lost their homes. What happens to those forcibly displaced by the violence is one of the most pressing and uncertain questions now. “Each stage will be heartbreaking as the hostages are released over weeks, after more than 470 days in captivity, while families wait in uncertainty about who will emerge alive, and Gazans gradually return to the rubble of what were once their homes and dig up the bodies of the dead,” Anshel Pfeffer, a British-Israeli journalist, wrote on X. “It is too early to say the war is over,” he wrote in The Economist.

Hamas’s chief negotiator said the militant group would not forget the suffering inflicted on Palestinians over the past 15 months. “We will not forget and we will not forgive,” Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya said, according to AFP.

Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump claimed credit for the ceasefire last night. President-elect Trump, who does not take office until Monday, claimed on his Truth Social platform that the long-awaited deal only happened because he was re-elected. (His incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, was involved in the negotiations.) Biden claimed it was the product of his administration’s relentless diplomacy and was based on a plan he proposed in May of last year. When a reporter asked the outgoing president whether he or Trump deserved credit, Biden replied: “Is this a joke?”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke to Trump first last night, according to his office. He praised the incoming president for “helping Israel end the suffering of dozens of hostages and their families” and promised that the United States would “work with Israel to ensure that Gaza is not a haven for terror.” The two planned to meet in Washington “soon.”

Netanyahu later called Biden and “also thanked him for his assistance,” the prime minister’s office said.