Brussels: Europe and the Arabs
Under the title "Desperate Diplomacy and the New Foreign Policy Crisis in Brussels," Playbook, the European version of the American magazine Politico, said, "The European Union is scrambling to avoid being drawn into what threatens to be a full-scale war in the Middle East, amid speculation that US President Donald Trump is preparing to issue a military order against Iran within days. The United States has already begun to act to protect its citizens and assets abroad, according to reports from our colleagues in Washington, although some voices in the "Make America Great Again" movement oppose US intervention.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly pressing the United States to strike the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility, which is mostly underground and can only be completely destroyed with a bunker-buster dropped by a B-2 Spirit bomber—to which only the Pentagon has access. The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has informed his senior aides of his approval of Iranian attack plans, but is delaying the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program." Chuck Freilich, Israel's former deputy national security adviser, told Playbook: "If the war ends and Fordo is still there, it won't have achieved its mandate, and people will ask Netanyahu why he started it." He added that the Israeli government believes that "European support will be crucial" in the aftermath of any military action.
There's another view: Matthew Shoemaker, a former US intelligence officer and military expert, told Playbook's Tim Ross: "US bunker-buster bombs can only reach 200 feet, but Iranian facilities are 300 feet deep, so it's likely the US wouldn't even be able to destroy Iranian nuclear material." Shoemaker added that if it succeeded, the resulting fallout "poses a significant chemical risk to anyone in the region" and could spread further by the wind.
What is Trump thinking? Or rather, how does his mind work? That's the question our Berlin-based defense correspondent, Chris Lunday, posed to the president's former national security adviser, John Bolton, who said Trump's decision-making process is driven more by "nervous flashes" than advice. Experts. Bolton added, "His rhetoric appears to be moving toward more direct American intervention." In a joint statement issued Wednesday, the E3 group of countries—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, along with the European Union—called for "restraint" and warned against "escalation," but also endorsed a firm tone toward Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons. Asked by Politico, a European Commission spokesperson said that "all necessary channels are in place" to deter the Americans and prevent a wider regional war, while insisting that Brussels does not support "regime change" in Iran. Macron's plan: After a defense cabinet meeting on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron asked his foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, to work with European partners to formulate a proposal for a negotiated settlement. An EU official confirmed that the bloc's top diplomat, Kaya Kallas, "will join her E3 counterparts for talks with the Iranian foreign minister in Geneva on Friday," hoping to encourage Tehran to be serious about reaching a diplomatic solution.
Can Europe intervene? Retired US Admiral Mark Montgomery said: "We have reached "It's a stage where Trump has to decide the matter until the end," he added. "As for the Europeans, French and British aircraft are in the theater of operations, and if the US does so, and Iran makes the wrong moves and attacks US forces, then they can be considered part of the operation, defending our assets and holding the Iranians accountable." Zohar Palti, the former head of the Mossad intelligence agency, told Playbook: "The British and French are not party to the game. The real players are the Americans." The former intelligence chief added that European diplomatic efforts are important, and that "any agreement with the Iranians will be between the Americans and the E3." We need the E3 to be absolutely decisive in preserving Israel's security."
"The leadership here understands and recognizes that this is an Israeli action against a regional actor," Haim Regev, Israel's ambassador to Brussels, told Playbook. "I think the EU can play a very important role in the aftermath, by pushing to put an end to this Iranian threat once and for all."
This ambiguity comes as Brussels faces pressure to take concrete action against Israel as a result of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Ambassadors will meet later today in a joint session to prepare their positions for Monday's Foreign Affairs Council, where Kallas will present a review of the EU-Israel Association Agreement.
The Netanyahu government could be found guilty of violating its human rights obligations and could face specific sanctions, for example in the area of ​​trade.
This morning, members of the European Parliament will unveil a new report in Strasbourg, commissioned by the Renew, Socialists and Democrats, and Greens groups, which argues that the EU and its member states may bear legal responsibility for alleged war crimes committed in Gaza and the West Bank.
He says The legal opinion, written by two Belgian law professors and obtained exclusively by Playbook, states that the EU "must exercise extreme caution and reassess any arms export licenses to Israel, given the risk that these weapons could be used to commit serious violations of international humanitarian law."