Contemporary conflicts are no longer measured solely by the scale of direct losses, but also by their ability to permeate the details of daily life, especially food. The ongoing escalation between the United States and Iran has transformed into a complex shock (energy, inflation, and food), with recent estimates indicating that oil prices have surpassed $126 per barrel, representing increases of over 50% in a short period—a scenario reminiscent of previous global energy crises.

In this context, the Strait of Hormuz emerges as a crucial element in understanding the dimensions of the crisis, as approximately one-fifth of the world's oil supply passes through it. Any disruption to this waterway not only disrupts energy flows but also impacts shipping and production costs, resulting in every food item being burdened with additional costs that can be described as a "stress cost."

The agricultural sector, which may appear superficially distant from the conflict zones, is among the most affected. Rising fuel prices increase the cost of operating equipment, and increased natural gas prices lead to higher fertilizer prices. The situation is further complicated by the fact that nearly 50% of global trade in certain agricultural inputs passes through the Gulf region, making any disruption there a direct threat to agricultural production.

Global supply chains, built on the foundations of speed and efficiency, have been exposed by this crisis as remarkably fragile. With rising insurance and transportation costs and slower shipping, food is arriving more slowly and at a higher cost. Some estimates indicate that fuel prices for consumers have increased by more than 18% in just a few weeks, impacting various stages of the food supply chain.

The repercussions extend beyond rising costs to include inflationary pressures. Prices have recorded annual increases of approximately 3.4%, driven by rising food prices, with some vegetables seeing price hikes of around 49% and fruits around 10%. With international institutions warning that a continued energy shock could push inflation even higher and slow economic growth, food is becoming one of the most significant channels through which this crisis is transmitted to societies.

In this context, what might be termed an "economics of anxiety" is becoming increasingly apparent. Countries are not waiting for actual shortages to occur; instead, they are proactively bolstering their reserves. Meanwhile, markets are driven by speculation, leading to price increases fueled as much by expectations as by reality. Pessimistic scenarios suggest that oil prices could exceed $170 per barrel if the escalation continues.

This reality is reshaping the concept of food inflation, transforming it into a societal phenomenon as much as an economic indicator. Rising food prices not only impact purchasing power but also affect consumption patterns, increasing pressure on the most vulnerable groups, which could simultaneously impact both social and economic stability.

In light of these shifts, the world appears to be moving towards restructuring its food system. Instead of relying entirely on global markets, countries have begun adopting more conservative policies focused on diversifying import sources, strengthening domestic production, and building strategic reserves. This trend reflects a growing awareness that food is no longer merely an economic commodity but a fundamental pillar of national security. This crisis reveals that the most dangerous effects of conflict lie not only on the battlefields, but also in their silent repercussions that reach people's dinner tables. The world today faces a true test of the resilience of its food systems in a turbulent environment. In this test, victory will belong not only to those who possess the resources, but also to those who manage them efficiently and flexibly during times of crisis.

We have already entered a new phase, where the question is no longer: Who has the power?

The more important question has become: Who has the capacity to secure their food supply in an increasingly turbulent world?